AGP Executive Report

Wildfires in Antalya: Strong winds drove blazes across Aksu and Kepez, with a second fire in Serik. One person died, dozens were treated for smoke exposure, and at least 254 homes were evacuated as the Antalya-Isparta highway briefly closed. Central Bank: Türkiye’s policy rate stayed at 37% as officials weigh sticky inflation and geopolitical risks. Energy ties: TAP’s expansion adds 1.2 bcm/year capacity, strengthening Azerbaijan’s gas exports to Europe via Türkiye-linked routes. Diplomacy in public: A new look at how social media is reshaping state messaging—and how misinformation spreads faster than official replies. Sports shock in Istanbul: Fenerbahçe’s Ismail Kartal resigned after the Roma 1-1 draw, but the club president immediately rejected it and said Kartal remains in charge. Archaeology: Excavations at Troy found an agora dating to about 2,800 years ago, suggesting the site wasn’t permanently abandoned after the Bronze Age. Tech and security: Anthropic says it blocked AI misuse that could support biological weapons research.

Black Sea & regional security: Turkey’s defense and diplomacy stay busy as Turkish Air Force pilots begin Eurofighter Typhoon flight training in the UK, while Ankara and Moscow stress continued work on the 3+3 Regional Cooperation Platform. Economy & rates: The Turkish Central Bank kept its key interest rate at 37%, citing slowing inflation but warning energy-price risks amid geopolitical pressures. Energy & industry: MKE and Poland’s PGZ signed an air-defense cooperation MoU at MSPO, and Turkey’s defense sector also moves deeper into Egypt with new drone and subsidiary deals. Domestic governance & rights: A Turkish court suspended a controversial mining permit in Diyarbakır’s Çınar over inadequate impact assessments, and a new İHD report alleges widespread torture and arbitrary detentions in 2025. Kurdish issue & press freedom: Kurdish commemorations for HPG and YJA-Star members continue across Turkey and the UK, while journalists’ groups warn censorship and platform blocks persist despite peace talks. Education safety: Turkey’s Mesem vocational training program is linked to dozens of deaths, according to the Education Ministry. Middle East flashpoint: Houthi forces seized Yemen’s Mocha, tightening pressure near Bab al-Mandab and raising fears of wider spillover.

Israel-Turkey Diplomacy: Israel has named a new chargé d’affaires to Turkey amid heightened regional tensions, as the Israeli embassy in Ankara remains closed for security reasons. Cyprus Search Effort: Turkish Cypriot leader Unal Ustel met Turkish officials in Ankara to coordinate the search for missing people after a Kyrenia shipwreck, including talks with defense and naval chiefs. Regional Sanctions Push: Turkey joined other Muslim countries in welcoming the UK’s ban on imports from illegal Israeli settlements and urging similar steps internationally. Mideast Security Flashpoints: Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are again linked to the growing Houthi-Saudi conflict, with warnings that attacks could trigger wider defense commitments. Education Spotlight: OECD’s Andreas Schleicher called Türkiye’s PISA 2025 results a “success story,” praising improvements across math, reading and science. Economy & Trade: Türkiye’s e-commerce boom is driving a push for $6bn in e-exports, while OECD also highlighted Türkiye’s education gains. Sports (UCL): Fenerbahçe return to the Champions League as they host Roma, with Galatasaray also starting their campaign in Europe.

Middle East Diplomacy: Turkey and seven other countries welcomed the UK’s move to ban imports from illegal Israeli settlements and urged more states to follow, while reiterating calls for Israel to rescind settlement measures and backing a two-state solution. Regional Security: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan’s “Mecca pact” is back in focus as Pakistan warns it could become operational if Yemen conflict spills into Saudi territory, with Ankara condemning Houthi attacks and reaffirming support for Riyadh. Wildfires in Türkiye: Fires in Antalya’s Aksu and Kepez districts forced evacuations of hundreds of homes and disrupted power, with firefighters battling strong winds and aerial support. Energy & Economy: Turkey’s export momentum continues, with January-August exports up year-on-year and Ankara among the top gainers, while the energy minister flags Black Sea gas extraction as a key project. Aviation Incident: A private plane made an emergency landing in the Black Sea off Rize; the Coast Guard rescued two people. Court Ruling: An Ordu court suspended an environmental approval for a planned mine over ecological and cultural heritage concerns.

US-Iran Pressure: Washington issued 36 Iran-related sanctions targeting Iran’s aviation sector, including moves aimed at grounding airlines and hitting front companies and intermediaries, with Turkish entities named among those accused of helping Iran’s aircraft access. Ukraine Aid Crunch: NATO chief Mark Rutte warned civilian deaths are at their highest since May 2022 as aid delays cost lives, urging allies to speed up air-defense and drone support. Turkey’s Diplomacy: OTS Secretary General Kubanychbek Omuraliev met Turkish FM Hakan Fidan in Ankara to coordinate preparations for the 13th OTS Summit and the group’s 2027-2031 strategy. Sports—Turkish Football: Kelechi Iheanacho is lighting up Turkey’s second tier with Bursaspor, scoring in each of his first six league games. Business—Turkish Airlines in Europe: Liverpool agreed a five-year front-of-shirt deal with Turkish Airlines worth over £300m, ending Standard Chartered’s 17-year run. Society & Safety: Search teams resumed for eight missing people, including five journalists, after a boat disappeared near Indonesia’s Anak Krakatau volcano. Local Planning: A Turkish restaurant in Ledbury faced backlash over “garish” shopfront signage, with a retrospective planning application under review.

Diplomacy: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan met US Ambassador Tom Barrack and Rep. Daniel Issa in Ankara, alongside OTS chief Kubanychbek Omuraliev, as Ankara keeps engaging Washington on Syria and Iraq. Security & rights: A new İHD report says 1,842 people faced torture or ill-treatment and 6,719 were arbitrarily detained in Turkey in 2025, with judicial pressure on critics continuing. Wildfires: Antalya’s Aksu and Kepez districts saw evacuations of at least 254 homes as strong winds fed a major blaze; firefighters deployed aircraft, helicopters and hundreds of personnel. Regional energy: Jordan approved a plan to supply Lebanon with natural gas via Syria, using Aqaba LNG infrastructure—an extension of the Arab Gas Pipeline route. International pressure on Iran: The US rolled out sweeping sanctions on Iran’s aviation sector, including airlines and service providers tied to Mahan Air, with designations of firms in Turkey and the UAE. Sports (Turkey-linked): Egypt’s Mohamed Salah was left off the 2026 Ballon d’Or nominees list, while Turkish Airlines’ record Liverpool shirt deal keeps fueling Turkey’s global visibility.

Middle East Diplomacy: President Erdoğan accused Israel of “lies and sabotage” derailing the Iran–US Islamabad accord, saying the region and global economy are paying the price. US Sanctions: The US Treasury sanctioned Turkey’s Golden Global Bank and two subsidiaries over alleged IRGC-linked financial transfers, with Sen. Rick Scott calling Turkey “not our friend.” Regional Security & Shipping: Somali piracy is surging again off Somalia, with renewed hijackings linked to regional chaos; a Turkish-Somali operation freed the MV Lutuf after a high-profile capture. Energy Prices: Erdoğan warned the Iran-centered crisis is worsening inflation and pushing up oil and diesel prices worldwide. Wildfires in Turkey: Strong winds fanned major fires in Antalya’s Aksu/Serik area, with evacuations and heavy firefighting resources deployed. Sports Spotlight: Mohamed Salah keeps shining at Trabzonspor, scoring and assisting in a 5-0 win as Turkey’s league buzz grows.

Erdogan’s Warning: After a Cabinet meeting in Ankara, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Türkiye will not allow “hostile moves” to encircle the country and announced new social housing and urban renewal steps, alongside preparations for COP31 in Antalya expecting 100,000+ visitors. Gaza Diplomacy: Kosovo signed an agreement to join the UN-mandated International Stabilization Force in Gaza, while Türkiye said it will not participate after Israel vetoed Ankara’s involvement. Regional Security: Turkey and the Sudanese Armed Forces discussed expanded urgent military help, underscoring Ankara’s growing security footprint amid UN arms-embargo concerns. Energy & Industry: Immaks (Aksa Composites) said it has burst-tested its Type 4 hydrogen storage vessel beyond 1,400 bar, aiming for UN ECE R134 certification in 2027. Sports: Trabzonspor thrashed Gençlerbirliği 5-0 with Paul Onuachu scoring twice, though he was forced off injured.

Women’s Volleyball: Türkiye beat Italy 3-2 in Istanbul to retain the European title and book a spot at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, with Melissa Vargas and Paola Egonu sharing top scoring honors. Economy & Defense: Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz unveiled Türkiye’s 2027-2029 medium-term program, lifting the 2026 inflation forecast to 28.4% while cutting growth and tourism projections, alongside a plan to raise defense spending by 229% over three years. Middle East Diplomacy: Turkey is pushing to restart Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul, while Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and counterparts discussed follow-ups under the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement. Regional Security: Iran warned the US of “faster, heavier” retaliation after IRGC claims of missile strikes on US warships in the Strait of Hormuz. Sports Injuries: Galatasaray confirmed Victor Osimhen and Mario Lemina are sidelined with right adductor injuries and are undergoing treatment. Politics & Law: A PKK official said Turkey’s disarmament process could stall without political reforms, criticizing the new surrender and reintegration law.

Energy & Climate Finance: Turkey’s energy minister Alparslan Bayraktar says the country needs at least $80 billion for electricity infrastructure by 2035, arguing public money won’t be enough and calling for cheaper long-term climate finance. Economy Roadmap: Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz unveiled a 2027-2029 medium-term program projecting 3.3% growth in 2026, year-end inflation at 28.4%, and a gradual disinflation path through 2029. Middle East Diplomacy: Pakistan’s Ishaq Dar held calls with Saudi, Türkiye and Egypt on regional security and follow-ups to the Makkah Defence Alliance; separately, Iran’s foreign minister discussed Strait of Hormuz security with Turkish and Saudi counterparts. Israel-Gaza Fallout: Eight countries including Türkiye condemned Israeli ministers’ Gaza displacement remarks, warning they violate international law and threaten Palestinian rights. Politics (Kurdish Issue): DEM Party leaders launched a “Democratic Republic Movement” at their Ankara congress, framing it as a step toward broader democratic politics and a new phase for the Kurdish question. Sports (Osimhen): Galatasaray says Victor Osimhen will miss three matches after a groin/adductor injury, including Champions League and Super Lig fixtures. Culture & Heritage: A Roman-era mosaic in Turkey’s Aegean region features named animals “Emerald” and “Ocean,” adding to the country’s archaeological finds.

US-Iran Diplomacy: Turkish and Iranian foreign ministers, Hakan Fidan and Abbas Araghchi, held talks on ongoing US negotiations, as Ankara keeps pushing for de-escalation amid rising regional tensions. Sanctions Pressure: The US Treasury sanctioned Istanbul-based Golden Global Investment Bank and two subsidiaries over alleged IRGC-linked transfers, part of Washington’s “Operation Economic Outcast,” with Ankara warning against treating sanctions as a judgment. Regional Defense Ties: Türkiye reaffirmed strategic and defence cooperation with Pakistan at Defence Day events, praising the new Pakistan-Türkiye-Saudi “Makkah” defence framework aimed at deterrence and stability. Maritime Safety: Turkey’s navy located the wreck of a cargo ship that sank after a collision near Istanbul’s Sea of Marmara, with 10 crew still missing. Archaeology: Over 20 Stone Age turtle figurines, dated to the Epipaleolithic period, were found inside a cave at Gedikkaya Hill in northwestern Türkiye, pointing to ritual use. Football: UEFA punished Fenerbahçe’s Mattéo Guendouzi and Mason Greenwood after the Lyon brawl; meanwhile Galatasaray’s Victor Osimhen faces a groin injury scare ahead of the Champions League.

Cyprus Tragedy: The death toll from the Girne (Kyrenia) ferry disaster in Northern Cyprus has climbed to 13, with 15 still missing after the Filo Jet capsized off Girne while traveling to Türkiye’s Taşucu. Maritime Safety: Turkish Navy images and underwater footage show a major hull breach in the wreck of the Tuğberk İmamoğlu cargo ship, which sank after a collision near İstanbul; 10 crew remain missing. US-Iran Pressure: The US says it struck three Iranian crude oil carriers after Iran’s IRGC launched ballistic missiles toward US warships; no Americans were reported harmed. Sanctions on Turkey: The US Treasury sanctioned Turkish bank Golden Global over alleged Iran-linked transactions, warning it is a “critical financial lifeline,” with legal threats reported. Regional Politics (Kurdish Issue): Abdullah Öcalan and Kurdish leaders used a Dortmund culture festival to call for a shift toward democratic politics and a shared future. Sports (Galatasaray): Galatasaray confirmed Victor Osimhen has a groin injury and is a major doubt for the Champions League opener; meanwhile Leroy Sané reportedly told club officials he’s unhappy with reduced playing time. Business/Trade: Azerbaijan imported $182.5m in electrical products from Türkiye in Jan–Aug 2026, according to Turkish exporters’ data.

US-Iran Financial Pressure: The US Treasury sanctioned Istanbul-based Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi and two subsidiaries, accusing them of helping Iran’s IRGC-Qods Force move tens of millions of dollars and access the dollar system. Middle East Diplomacy: In a phone call, Turkey’s Erdogan and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed stressed boosting security and stability and delivering lasting peace amid renewed Iran-linked escalation. Migration & Border Tensions: Greek police detained eight migrants after alleged illegal entry from Turkey, with smugglers moving them toward Athens and onward destinations. Regional Security Pact: A new “Islamic NATO”-style defense deal signed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in Mecca is framed as treating attacks on any signatory as attacks on all. Sports—Turkish Clubs: Victor Osimhen scored again for Galatasaray but left with a groin injury scare; Trabzonspor says Paul Onuachu won’t be sold. Economy & Tech: Turkey’s information/communication sector grew strongly, with digital expansion seen as a new integration channel for the Middle Corridor.

Iran Sanctions: The U.S. Treasury sanctioned Istanbul-based Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi and two subsidiaries, cutting them off from the dollar system as part of “Operation Economic Outcast,” and issued a license to wind down transactions. Central Bank Watch: Turkey’s central bank is widely expected to hold its benchmark rate at 37% at the Sept. 10 meeting, while August inflation was reported at 31.51% year-on-year. Media & Courts: An Istanbul court ordered access blocks to at least 21 X accounts over “national security” claims, including a network for relatives of jailed opposition figures and a left-wing outlet. Free Speech Under Pressure: Prosecutors indicted comedian Deniz Göktaş over remarks in a viral YouTube stand-up set, seeking up to 9 years and 8 months; he remains in pre-trial detention. Diplomacy: Erdoğan congratulated Italy’s PM Giorgia Meloni on a record tenure, saying cooperation between Türkiye and Italy will keep growing. Sports: Galatasaray submitted its Champions League squad featuring Victor Osimhen and Rafael Leão.

Aegean Tensions: Greece’s PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis says Athens “will not accept instructions from anyone” as Ankara’s new marine parks and maritime moves spark fresh diplomatic friction. Cyprus Crisis: The Kyrenia ferry disaster off northern Cyprus has reached 10 deaths, with 18 still missing, as Turkish naval rescue teams continue underwater searches. Israel-Syria Watch: A recent Israeli strike on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase has raised alarm in Ankara, with analysts stressing both sides want to avoid direct confrontation while competing over influence in Syria. Iran Pressure: US VP J.D. Vance says Washington won’t negotiate with Iran until it stops attacks on commercial shipping, warning of broader pressure to protect energy flows. Defense & Industry: Reports say the US is considering foreign designs for a new frigate class, including Turkey’s Istanbul-class, while Turkey’s marine parks plan continues to draw legal and regional pushback. Economy & Trade: Turkey’s August exports hit record levels, and GDP growth is expected below target. Crime & Security: The FBI added a Turkish national tied to Florida to its “Most Wanted” list over defense fraud allegations.

Eurofighter Training: Turkish pilots will start practical Eurofighter flights in the UK on Sept. 7 after theoretical training began in August, with an eight-month flight phase and further instructor training. UEFA Discipline: UEFA opened disciplinary proceedings into Fenerbahce’s Mason Greenwood and Matteo Guendouzi after Champions League qualifier scenes vs Lyon; sanctions could come before the club’s Roma match. Maritime Safety: An expert report into a Marmara Sea collision says the tanker ALSU showed “serious negligence,” citing bridge failures and lack of lookout; 10 crew are missing. Security & Justice: Turkey indicted 51 minors in İstanbul over alleged gang activity tied to “Casperlar,” with raids across multiple provinces. Gülen Crackdown Debate: A report argues Europe’s asylum assessments may misread Turkey’s Gülen crackdown, saying lower prosecution numbers can reflect changed targeting rather than easing. Regional Defense Pact: Turkey’s Mecca (Makkah) joint defense framework is taking shape as Saudi, Pakistan and Turkey meet in Istanbul to define collective-defense cooperation. Media Deal: Warner Bros. Discovery and Doğuş Media agreed to co-finance and co-broadcast Turkish scripted series, with Tuzlu Kahve set for Star TV and HBO Max.